Source: https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/getsure-e/index-e.html Cherechedza: Makapu asina kunaka akadzika muna 2009 na2021 anokonzerwa nekuderera kukuru kwepasi rose uye Covid zvichiteerana.
Takuji Aida, mukuru wezvehupfumi achizevezera munzeve yeMutungamiriri Sanae Takaichi, akaraira mutemo unotyora misimboti yehupfumi. Haisi kungoita chete, asi kuedza kuzviita kunokuvadza.
Nheyo yakakosha yehupfumi ndeyekuti zvese zvine kukosha zvinouya nemubhadharo. Kunyange mhepo haisati yasununguka, tichipiwa mari yokurwisa kusvibiswa. Mubvunzo ndewokuti mabhenefiti anopfuura mutengo. Aida, zvakasiyana, inongoramba mari yacho. Kuwedzera kwehupfumi hwehupfumi ndeimwe yezviitiko apo mabhenefiti anopfuudzwa nemitengo. Mabhomu akawandisa anoteverwa nekudzika kwakadzika uye / kana kumira. Kuwedzera kwehupfumi hweJapan mukupera kwema1980-apo kukura kwakawedzera-kwakateverwa nemakumi matatu emakore akarasika (bubble rakambovanza zvakadzika-zvimisikidzo kukanganisa). Saizvozvo, madhirivatives / mabhubhu edzimba muUS neEurope akatungamira kuKuderera kukuru kwe2008-09 uyezve dambudziko re2010 Eurodebt.
Ichi ndicho chikonzero mabhanga epakati achiedza kuita kuti kutenderera kwebhizinesi kuve kwakatsetseka sezvinobvira. Upfumi hune kuwedzera kudiki uye kudzikira kunokura nekukurumidza nekufamba kwenguva.
Achiregeredza zvidzidzo izvi, Aida anofunga kudzoreredza mamiriro akatungamira kune bubble, uku achisimbirira kuti haizoperi mukubhowekana. Kutaura chokwadi, ndinokahadzika mhino dzaAida dzichatogadzira boom yake yaanoda. Saka, ini handisi kunetsekana nebubble pane kukuvadza kunogadzirwa nekuedza kwakadaro. Aida akatsanangura pfungwa dzake mune chinyorwa chaNdira kune vatengi vanonzi “Takaichi manejimendi ekudyara kuburikidza neruzhinji-yakavanzika kudyidzana kunobatsira kukunda kusamira kwehupfumi.”
Kuedza Kugadzira Patsva Ma1980s
Kuti hupfumi hunogona kukura nekukurumidza sei panguva yepakati pasina kupisa kunonzi “kugona kukura.” Icho chibereko chekukura mumaawa ekushanda, munharaunda yehurumende uye yega, uye mukubudirira, kureva, kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwezvakabuda (GDP) hupfumi hunowanikwa kune imwe neimwe ye1% yekuwedzera kwevashandi uye mari. Ngatitii hupfumi hunogona kukura ne2% pagore. Mukufamba kwebhizinesi kutenderera, chaiyo GDP inokura nekukurumidza kupfuura 2% panguva yekuwedzera uyezve zvibvumirano panguva yekuderera.
Mabhangi epakati anoteerera zvakanyanya kuhukuru hwe “gap rekubuda,” kureva, musiyano pakati peiyo chaiyo uye inogona kuitika GDP. Iyo idiki iyo yakanaka yekubuda gap panguva yekuwedzera, idiki iyo gap isina kunaka panguva yekuderera. Zvakare, kuderera kuri kuita kuderera, ndiko kuwedzera kunoita makambani kuisa mari muhunyanzvi hwazvino, R&D, uye kudzidziswa kwevashandi nekuti ramangwana rinotarisika. Ndosaka kukura kwenguva refu kwakakwira muhupfumi hune mwero bhizinesi kutenderera.
Ichiregeredza zvidzidzo zvemakumi emakore enhoroondo yehupfumi, Aida inokurudzira kuzadza hupfumi nekusimudzira kwemari zvekuti ichamhanyisa 2% yakanaka yekubuda gap nekusingaperi. Anoidana “hupfumi hwepamusoro-soro ine gap rinobuda rinopfuura 2%” (ona hurukuro yangu ye “high-pressure economy” mune ino post)
Panyama hazvibviri kuti hupfumi huite gap rakakura rinobuda kwemakore akawanda. Iyo boom inopera nekunonoka kuburitsa nguva, kazhinji kuparara kwemidziyo, kuwandisa kwemari, uye kuwedzera inflation. Muhafu yezana ramakore rapfuura, nguva chete iyo Japan yakamhanyisa gap rekubuda kwe2% yaive pakupera kwema1980s bubble, uye aive makore matatu chete. Pakave nekudzokororwa kwenguva pfupi kwegore muna 2007 uye kutanga kwa2008. Zvikamu zviviri izvi zvakakonzera kudonha kwakadzika uye kureba nemakore akati wandei. negative mapeji makuru kupfuura 2% (ona chati iri kumusoro). Muchokwadi, kubvira 1992, Japan yakashandisa zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvenguva ichishanda pasi pezvainokwanisa.
Yakapfuura mafiscal-money binges akatadza kuburitsa chisingaperi 2% yekubuda gap, saka nei ichifanira kudaro izvozvi?
Kuwedzera Pasina Kukwira Kwemitengo?
Aida anovimbisa kuti “gepu rekubuda re +2% [is] zvinoenderana nekudzikamisa inflation muchikamu che2%. Ari kuyedza kugadzira-bubble-semamiriro asingatarisire senge mhedzisiro.
Apo bhavhu rema1980s rakagadzira gap rakanaka rekubuda pa2%, rakaburitsawo 3% inflation yevatengi, tisingataure nezvenjodzi yepfuma uye musika wemasheya. Chikonzero chiri nyore: kubva 1985 kusvika 2020, inflation / deflation yaive basa rekuwedzera kudiwa muhupfumi. Kana goho rekubuda rakasimuka kana kudonha, indekisi yemitengo yakasimuka kana kudonha mativi maviri gare gare (ona chati pazasi).
Source: https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/getsurei/2532gap.xlsx uye https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/stat-search/file-download?statInfId=000031431706&fileKind=1
Mufananidzo wakachinja kutanga muna 2021. Inflation yakakwira kunyangwe gep rekubuda raive pedyo ne zero. Izvo zvakaguma nekukatyamadzwa-kudivi rekupa: kuwedzera mitengo yezvekudya nesimba. Izvi zvakakonzerwa nekubatanidzwa kwemitengo yekukwira kwemusika wepasi rose uye kuderera kweyen, izvo zvakakwidza mitengo yezvinhu zvinopinda munyika.
Zvikumbiro zveAida Kukura Kuwedzera Katatu Mwero Wayo Kwemakore Makumi Maviri Apfuura
Aida anofanotaura kuti kukura kweGDP kuchakwira sezvo kurudziro yemari inobatidza kuwedzera kwekudyara kwebhizinesi. Iyo yekupedzisira icha “kure kupfuura” 18% yeGDP, inosvika padanho 2.5 muzana pamusoro peavhareji yemakore makumi matatu apfuura (ona chati iri pazasi).
Source: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/sokuhou/files/2025/qe254/tables/gaku-jcy2541.csv Cherechedza: dotted line ivhareji kubva 1995
Sezvo mari zhinji yekudyara mari ichingotsiva midziyo yakasakara kana isingachashandi, mari yekudyara iyo inowedzera huwandu hwave hwave zero, ichipa chete 0.1% pagore mukukura kweGDP mumakore makumi maviri apfuura. Zvakangodaro, Aida anofanotaura kuti, nekuda kwechivimbiso chekudyara, “mwero wekukura unotarisirwa kukwira kusvika pa1%. Izvo zvakapetwa kaviri avhareji yemakore makumi maviri apfuura (ona chati iri pazasi).
Source: https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/getsure-e/index-e.html Cherechedza: dotted line iri pakati kubva 2004
Uyezve, kukura chaiko kuchakwira kusvika pachikamu che1%,” kanenge katatu kukura kwakaitika mumakore makumi maviri apfuura (ona chati iri pazasi).
Source: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/sokuhou/files/2025/qe254/tables/gaku-jcy2541.csv Cherechedza: dotted line ivhareji yekukura kubva 2005
Ndekupi Kubudirira Muchiitiko cheAida?
Ini ndinopokana zvakanyanya kuti bhizinesi rekudyara richakwira zvakanyanya sekuvimbisa kwaAida. Izvo hazvina kuita izvi muzvikamu zvakapfuura zvefiscal largesse. Nei mafemu achizovaka zvimwe zvirimwa zvemotokari kana kutengesa kwepamba uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuri kudonha? Kuvakirei zvitoro zvakawanda nemahofisi apo huwandu hwevanhu hwaderera?
Kunyangwe kana investimendi ichikwira, izvo zvaisazotungamira kune yakakura kusvetuka mukukura kweGDP yaakavimbisa. Kuti inakidzwe nekusvetuka mukukura, Japan inoda kusvetuka mukubudirira. Uye zvakadaro, mugwaro remapeji makumi masere nemapfumbamwe, izwi rekuti kugadzirwa rinowanikwa kashanu chete. Anotaura kuti kudyara kwakawanda kuchawedzera budiriro, manyepo akagovaniswa nevazhinji vevagadziri vemitemo veJapan. Havana kumbonzwa nezvemutemo wekuderera kwekudzoka? Kuwedzera pamidziyo yakawanda pasina kuvandudzwa kwetekinoroji kunobereka kushoma uye kushoma. Kudzoka muna 1988, imwe neimwe ¥100 yekuwedzera kweiyo capital stock yakawedzera GDP ne ¥40. Nhasi, kukwira kwakafanana kwemari kunosimudza GDP ne70% zvishoma: chete ¥12. Zvakare, sezvo kudzikira kwekudzoka kwepanyama kuchishandura kuita yakaderera purofiti, makambani ane zvishoma zvekukurudzira kukurumidzira kushandisa kwavo mari.
Muhupfumi hwakakura, kukura kwehunyanzvi hwevashandi uye tekinoroji, pamwe nehurongwa hwakavandudzwa hwemakambani, hunopa kukura kwepamusoro kuburikidza nekubudirira kukuru. Kwete mamwe madhora, asi akawanda bang kune iyo buck. Japan inodawo hupfumi hwemusika hunochinjika uko mari nevashandi zvinofamba zvakanaka kubva kumakambani akaderera-chigadzirwa uye zvikamu kuenda kune yepamusoro-chigadzirwa, zvimwe zvitsva. Maona iyi post uye uyu uye uyu.
Muchokwadi, nekudzikira kwevashandi uye furati yekudyara, iyo yekutanga sosi yekukura kweGP ndeye Total Factor Productivity (TFP), iyo kukura kwayo kunoramba kudonha (ona chati pazasi). TFP inosanganisira kugadzirwa kwemari pamwe nekushanda; zvakadaro, Aida haana kana izwi pamusoro peizvi.
.Aida Inoti Kubudirira Kuri Nani Kunokwidza Mihoro
Aida anoti “kuwanikwa kwekubudirira kunoita kuti muhoro uwedzere.” Kwete chokwadi. Sezvandaikurukura mune ino postkubva ku1995 kusvika ku2017, kunyange zvazvo GDP chaiyo paawa yekushanda yakasimuka ne30%, mibairo chaiyo paawa haina kumuka zvachose. Ndiko kuita kwakaipisisa muOECD. Mune mazwi ezita, purofiti yemakambani pamushandi yakapetwa kaviri kunyangwe kutengesa uye mihoro pamushandi wega wega isina kukwira.
Panzvimbo pekuve nehurongwa chaihwo hwekukwidza muhoro, Aida anoyambira Takaichi kuti muhoro unozongokwira mufashoni “yekudonha”. Ona zvimwe pa izvi mune yangu yapfuura post.
Aida Anovimbisa Bubble-Type Kukwereta Binge NeMakambani
Nezvikonzero zvandisiri kuzodonongodza, mamiriro emuhoro aAida, inflation, uye chikwereti chehurumende chakasimba chinoda kuti makambani abve pakuva vanochengeta mambure, kureva, kuchengeta mari yavanoburitsa kubva mupurofiti, kuenda kuva vanokwereta mambure. Asi, sezvaungangofungidzira pari zvino, nguva yekupedzisira makambani aive akakwereta mambure aive panguva yebubble (ona chati pazasi).
Source: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/kakuhou/files/2024/tables/2024s18_en.xlsx
Pamberi pemakumi emakore akarasika, kudyara kwekambani mumidziyo uye R&D kwakapfuura kuyerera kwavo kwemari. Vaifanira kukwereta. Nhasi, makambani ane matani emari ekudyara zvakanyanya kupfuura zvavanoita, asi vanoona purofiti shoma mukuita kudaro. Mudzi wekuchengetedza makambani akawandisa ndewekuti kudzvanyirirwa kwemuhoro uye kuderedzwa kwemitero kwakawedzera zvakapetwa mari yemakambani kubva pasi pe8% yeGDP muna 1980 kusvika 16% muna 2025. Zvisineyi, Aida anoti chishamiso chekukurudzira kwemari uye 2% gap rekubuda richakurumidza kutanga kudyara.
“Hapana Dambudziko Nechikwereti cheHurumende”
Kwemakumi emakore, Japan yakaedza—uye yakakundikana—kuwana chiyero mune inodaidzwa kuti “bhajeti rekutanga,” kureva, bhajeti iri parutivi pemhindu pachikwereti. Aida inotaura kuti kudzoka kwekukwira kwemitengo uye kukura kwakanyanya kunoreva Japan inogona kudzikisa chiyero chechikwereti kuGDP kunyangwe ichimhanyisa kushomeka kwekutanga. Kuti izvo zvive zvechokwadi, zvimwe zvese zviri muchimiro chake zvinofanirwa kuitika.
Heino mashandiro anoita arithmetic. Ngatitii mugore rekutanga, GDP izana uye chikwereti chose chiriwo zana. Saka, chikwereti chakaenzana ne100% yeGDP. Zvino, tomboti GDP yezita inokura 3.5% pagore, uye mubereko pamakore gumi ehurumende yeJapan mabhondi (JGBs) inokwira kusvika pa3% (Aida inofanofungidzira pa2.8% panosvika 2027). Mugore rechipiri, GDP ndeye 103.5. Chikwereti chave 103, kureva, chikamu che100 mugore rekutanga pamwe ne3%. Saka, chikwereti: GDP ratio yadonha zvishoma kusvika 99.5%. Anofungidzira izvi zvichiitika gore negore.
Parizvino, chikwereti chehurumende yeJapan-kureva, chikwereti chisina kubatwa nemamwe masangano ehurumende, kusanganisira Bank of Japan-yakaenzana ne84% yeGDP. Kana misika ikatora maJGBs padanho iroro, ipapo Japan inogona kumhanya zvine mwero kushomeka kuti iwedzere kukura nekusingaperi pasina kunetseka nezve kuchengetedzwa kwechikwereti. Anokurudzira kusiya chinangwa cheJapan chakagara (asi chisina kumboitika) chekupedza kushomeka mubhajeti rekutanga.
BOJ Policy Interest Rate Pa2%; Real Rates PaZero
Mumamiriro ezvinhu aAida, kukwira-parutivi inflation kunopera, ukuwo inflation inotungamirwa inokwira kusvika pa2% panosvika 2027 uye inogara ipapo. Saka, mubereko wehusiku humwe wakagadzwa neBank of Japan uchakwirawo kusvika ku2% panosvika 2028. Izvozvo zvinoreva kuti “chaiyo” mwero wemhindu pamari yehusiku humwe ndizero, iyo, iye anodaro, “inosimudzira basa rezvemari.”
Zvose Zvisungo MuChain Zvinofanira Kushanda; Vese Vanokahadzika Pazvakanakisa
Aida yakagadzira cheni yepfungwa inoenderana nemukati-kunyangwe isingaenderane neicho chaicho-asi chete kana chese chinongedzo muketani chakamira. Dambudziko nderekuti ma link akawandisa ari wildly chimerical.
Kana iwe uchinzwa kuti wawana nzwisiso kubva kune ino blog, wakamboidzokorora, kana iwe wakambonyorera kune yangu yapfuura chinyorwa, The Oriental Economist Report, uye zvirokwazvo, kana iwe kana femu yako makawana ruzivo rwakabatsira kutungamira mabhindauko ako, ndapota tsigira bhurogi nekunyoreswa kana ne “kunditengera kapu yekofi.” Iwe unogona kutenga mukombe kana maviri panguva imwe chete, kana kamwe pagore, kana kamwe chete pamwedzi.
#Fantasy #Island #Takaichis #Economic #Guru #Inotsanangura #Mamiriro #Akagadzira #1980s #Bubble
