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For any president, it’s not a great sign when you see job numbers go down and gas prices go up. This is especially true if you are a president who prided himself on taking the American economy into a “golden age.” And that’s exactly where Donald Trump finds himself on Friday, thanks to two economic events that add to the bad political news. One is the latest twist in the slow-moving story about the health of the labor market. One is to predict the fallout of Trump’s long-ago war against Iran.
First, the twist. Friday morning, the Labor Department released the latest figures on how many jobs the US economy created in February. Unless “creation” turns out to be the wrong word. New statistics show that the economy get lost 92,000 jobs last month. Worse still, the ministry said the federal government had overstated the number of jobs added in its two previous reports. (It usually adjusts its estimates as more data comes in, but in this case the surveys already excluded any job creation in the past three months.)
The numbers surprised forecasters, reviving fears of a recession. Investors backed off, sending stocks tumbling. Even Trump officials struggled to manage the situation. “I think we need to address the fact that this is not a good statement in its entirety,” Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer admitted on Fox Business, before blaming the strike in California on the weather. (As New York Times economic reporter Ben Casselman points out, bad weather can reduce employment numbers. But that doesn’t seem to be a big deal this time, because fewer people are reporting being unable to work because of the weather than a year ago.)
The government reports job numbers on a predetermined schedule, but there’s no question that the latest ones land at an inconvenient time for Trump. That leads to the second economic development this week that should worry the president: rising gas prices. Trump’s bombing campaign against Iran has disrupted the pumping and shipping of crude oil, raising gas prices around the world. In the US, a gallon is now averaging $3.32, an 11 percent jump from last week and the highest recorded price of gasoline during the Trump administration. What happens in Tehran, happens, does not stay in Tehran.
Wars—as well as killing civilians and creating dire relief problems—sometimes cause one-off cost shocks. But a stronger fight could also boost oil production and raise the price of other exports, including aluminum, farm fertilizer, and natural gas. The cost of anything that uses fuel as a gift, from making an iPhone to buying a plane ticket, can add up quickly. The war has choked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the U-bend-like chokepoint off the coast of Iran that serves as a route for more than a third of the world’s oil exports each year. On Wednesday, the number of water tanks that passed through the water was zero.
Okay, so the economy – despite Trump’s promises of a “new golden generation” – is hitting a patch. How much is Trump’s fault?
Absolutely nothing! There is a clear connection between his decision to bomb Iran, the rise in the price of oil, and growing kinks in the supply lines of international trade. The issue of the labor market, which can sometimes resemble a pendulum, is more complicated. Trump took office following a furious burst of post-pandemic job growth during Joe Biden’s presidency. The latest government figures also show strong wage growth and the unemployment rate unchanged from last summer.
However, Trump’s immigration policies and aggressive deportation efforts may be slowing the labor market. His taxes have hurt small businesses, while his threats and accusations have boosted the perception of the US as a safe haven for big corporations. His cuts to Medicaid are hurting hospitals’ ability to hire and retain workers, even though health care is among the few sectors that consistently create jobs.
Whatever the reason, history shows that the wars are not popular in the Middle East and the economic figures have many bad signs in front of them which bode badly for the leaders. Trump, however, may be more concerned about both. Most Republicans support an attack on Iran, polls show. But it angered some supporters who apparently seized on Trump’s pledge not to start a new war, putting further pressure on the MAGA coalition already troubled by his handling of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, heavy taxation, and gleeful meddling in Venezuela.
Presidents are often blamed for bad economic statistics (just ask Biden). But it makes some sense for the voters to be accountable for the president who wants to ask for a loan when things are going well. Mr. Trump prides himself on trade negotiations, brings out CEOs to announce America’s new currency, and says he understands monetary policy better than the chairman of the Federal Reserve. During his State of the Union address last week, Trump cited the stock market and low gas prices to argue that the US economy was “unprecedented.” The battle he started in the next few days affected both sides.
A president doesn’t have to be hands-on like Trump to appreciate the political mix that might be brewing. Two decades ago, an unpopular war overseas and the collapse of the global economy helped Democrats retake Congress and the White House under the last Republican president, George W. Bush. And while there are many speculations that a new war in the Middle East may prove to be the explosive bomb that will finally break Trump’s grip on the MAGA faithful, the coalition of voters that returned him to power in 2024 has collapsed. Polls show that Mr. Trump’s image has eroded with Americans of every age, race, gender, and income since he took office—including independents, young people, and black voters whose unhappiness with Biden’s economy helped propel him to the top.
So far, however, Trump seems unaffected. He told CNN on Thursday that higher gas prices “will be short-lived” and will “come down quickly.” However, he also refused to say how long the war will last, saying in one sentence it would be four or five weeks and that “we can go longer than that.” This week, former Bush adviser Robert McNally told The Times that how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed will determine how high gas prices rise. With the wealth of Trump and his party in politics, the question is how low it is.
