Just a week after President Donald Trump hailed falling gas prices as one of his economic victories, his actions are sending the price of a gallon soaring.
The war started by Trump against Iran has spread to the Middle East, where more than a quarter of the world’s oil is produced.
Gas prices rose sharply, underscoring a key data point in Trump’s argument against American skeptics that the economy is expanding.
“Petrone, which reached over $6 per gallon in some states under my predecessors – which was, of course, a disaster – is now below $230 per gallon in many states, and in some places, $1.99 a gallon,” Trump said in his State of the Union address.
Although his numbers were larger than the actual numbers, gas prices seemed like a strong talking point for Republicans heading into the midterm elections in November.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright pumped the gas to reinforce the message that the administration is making gas more expensive for Americans.
But that was last week.
In the week since the State of the Union address, the average price of a gallon of gas in America has risen 16 cents to about $3.11, according to AAA. It is impossible to know how much of that is due to the war in the Middle East, but many experts believe that there is a strong connection. Prices tend to rise though from the lowest in February to the highest in the summer season.
Asked about the issue on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration expects prices to go up.
“We knew that going in would cause problems,” he said.
Trump said he believed the increase would be a short-term problem. However, officials have given a number of estimates on how long the hostilities will last, and it may be difficult for the US to stop fighting if Iran continues to attack American assets and allies.
“Once this is over, those prices will go down, I believe, lower than they’ve ever been,” Trump said Tuesday at the White House.
Republican strategists hope he is telling the truth. His party is trying to hold on to majorities in the House and Senate at a time when Trump’s approval is still under water. In particular, voters said after the election that they were dissatisfied with Trump’s economy more and the prices of goods more.
The timing could be crucial for GOP candidates.
“A small, short spike — even if it happens — is not going to be an issue,” said Matt Gorman, a veteran Republican politician.
A second GOP official who works on midterm campaigns said the price increase is likely to be temporary. But if it doesn’t, he said, the consequences can be devastating.
“If it backs up at all, it’s really bad,” said a second official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid upsetting the White House. “Grocery prices are still going up. House prices are still going up. Gas is lower than it is. If that changes, and it’s clear that oil prices are high and prices are going up, where will it end?”
Despite the political risk of rising gas prices because of the war, some Republicans credit Trump with taking action on Iran.
“Trump has done what’s best for America despite high oil prices,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor who owns an oilfield services company called Canary.
Democratic critics of the Iran war have said rising gas prices are one of the reasons they are worried about the strike. Many of them said that there is no doubt that the release of gas pipelines is in line with the slogan “America First” that Trump has promoted as his slogan for more than a decade.
Rep. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., who is seen by many as a possible candidate for the 2028 presidential election, praised Trump in an op-ed published Tuesday.
“This country does not want to see more Americans die. The American people do not want higher gas prices, which will go up at the pump because of this stupid debate,” he wrote. “They don’t want us to waste tens of billions of dollars on this war, all while millions of Americans lose their health. They don’t want to throw the Middle East into more chaos and unintended chaos while the Pentagon’s well-connected contractors enrich themselves.”
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told NBC News on Tuesday: “The Republican base doesn’t want this. The Democratic base doesn’t want this. Independent voters don’t want this. Nobody in America is asking for their gas prices, their grocery prices, their construction prices to go through the roof. Nobody in this country is asking for more American soldiers to die in a war in the Middle East.”
During his campaign in 2024, Trump railed against President Joe Biden about inflation, promising to end it. And while the rate of inflation has slowed during Trump’s second term, it has remained elevated on his watch — and America’s budgets remain under pressure.
White House officials note that domestic oil production is a buffer against global disruption and say they are monitoring the impact of the war on US gas prices.
“The actions of the Trump administration have led to higher production of US oil and more oil from our new market and agreements with Venezuela,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “The Departments of Energy and Treasury will continue to monitor the oil markets and do everything possible to stabilize prices.”
Mark Bednar, a Republican strategist and a former aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said Trump understands the dynamics of markets and politics well enough to handle the changing tide of war.
“If there’s anyone who knows the political value of buying gas, it’s President Trump,” Bednar said. “His victory in 2024 is owed to his ‘Energy Dominance’ plan, and so far his long-term plans to boost American manufacturing and cut the burdens of the Biden days have been very successful.”
The administration’s reforms, including Trump’s announcement on Tuesday that the US International Development Finance Corporation will insure the transportation of tankers and that the Navy can escort them through the Strait of Hormuz, “will be important in keeping energy prices for the American electorate,” Bednar said.
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